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XRP is trading near $1.05, close to a 19-month low of $1.01 hit in late June. That is a long way from the $3.40 peak it reached in January 2025 following the conclusion of the Ripple-SEC lawsuit. Thai investors who bought XRP in the excitement surrounding the legal settlement are sitting on significant paper losses. The question right now is whether $1.00–$1.05 represents a genuine floor or a stepping stone to further losses.
The Lawsuit Is Over: What Actually Happened
In August 2025, both Ripple and the SEC dropped their appeals. Ripple paid a $50 million settlement and reclaimed $75 million it had previously set aside in reserve. Judge Analisa Torres’ ruling stands: XRP is not a security when sold in retail transactions, but certain institutional sales were deemed securities under US law. Ripple also accepted a permanent injunction preventing direct institutional XRP sales in the US market.
The lawsuit resolution was supposed to be XRP’s breakout moment. And it was — briefly. The coin hit $3.40 in January 2025. But the subsequent 12 months of price action have been a case study in “buy the rumor, sell the news” at its most extreme. The legal tailwind is fully priced in. What XRP needs now are operating fundamentals: real transaction volumes on RippleNet, actual bank adoption of On-Demand Liquidity (ODL), and institutional ETF demand.
Why XRP Is Under Pressure Now
The same forces hitting Bitcoin and Ethereum are hitting XRP harder, because XRP is smaller and more speculative. The Federal Reserve’s “higher for longer” stance has broadly deflated risk appetite for digital assets. US spot crypto ETF outflows in June totaled over $4.5 billion across all assets. XRP-specific ETF proposals are still awaiting SEC approval in the US — they have not launched — which means institutional buying support via ETF channels does not exist yet for XRP.
The analyst consensus for 2026 clusters between $2.50 and $5.00, with a midpoint near $3.50–$4.00. Those targets are premised on XRP ETF approval, the CLARITY Act advancing through Congress (which would provide regulatory certainty for crypto broadly), and continued RippleNet expansion. None of those catalysts have materialized yet in 2026.
What Thai Investors Need to Think About
XRP is listed on both Bitkub and Gulf Binance in Thailand, tradeable in baht. At $1.05 and a USD/THB rate of 33.16, one XRP costs approximately 34.82 baht. The 19-month low thesis says this is cheap relative to recent history. The counter-thesis says: relative to when? If the $3.40 January 2025 peak was the peak of the legal-catalyst hype cycle, the current price is not obviously cheap — it may be the price discovery that correctly values XRP without the catalyst premium.
There are three useful frameworks for thinking about XRP at $1.05:
- If you bought above $1.50: You are down. Averaging down increases position size and amplifies both loss and gain. Only sensible if you have strong conviction on an upcoming catalyst.
- If you have no position: The risk-reward at $1.00 support is interesting but speculative. A position sized at 2–5% of your crypto allocation is reasonable; more than that is gambling on timing a catalyst that may take 12–18 months to materialize.
- If you are considering taking profit on existing gains: There are essentially none to take at current prices unless you bought before October 2023. Patience is your only option.
What Would Actually Move XRP Higher
- US XRP spot ETF approval — most impactful single catalyst
- The CLARITY Act passing the Senate — gives regulatory certainty across US crypto
- New banking partnerships using ODL for cross-border payments — RippleNet real-world volume growth
- Bitcoin breaking above $65,000 — altcoins including XRP tend to rally 20–40% when BTC breaks key resistance
