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US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $281.8 million in net inflows last week, ending an eight-week streak of outflows that had drained more than $7 billion from the sector. Bitcoin was trading near $64,100 on July 16, well above the approximately $60,000 low hit in the final week of June — a low that represented a 21-month trough from the January peak above $93,000. Whether this week marks a genuine inflection or a technical bounce in a broader downtrend is what traders are now pricing.
The Eight Weeks Before This One
Between early May and early July 2026, US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted eight consecutive weeks of net outflows. June alone saw $4.5 billion leave the sector, with BlackRock IBIT accounting for roughly 75% of those redemptions — the worst single month on record for crypto ETFs since their January 2024 launch. For context, one major bank cut its 12-month Bitcoin ETF inflow forecast to zero during that stretch. That is not a minor downward revision; it is an analyst concluding the product had lost its institutional momentum.
Bitcoin started 2026 above $93,000. The slide to $60,000 was a roughly 35% decline over six months — painful by any measure, though mild compared to past crypto cycles where drawdowns exceeded 70%.
What Flipped the Flow This Week
The reversal coincided with Bitcoin stabilizing and partially recovering above $63,000, which brought momentum traders back. The approaching Federal Reserve meeting on July 28–29, with a 78% probability of a hold, reduced one near-term macro headwind for risk assets. Lower short-term rate-hike probability tends to be mildly positive for assets competing against yield-paying instruments like Treasuries.
Institutional positioning also contributed. After heavy ETF redemptions, some products were trading at slight discounts to net asset value, creating arbitrage incentives for authorized participants to buy shares and push inflows. That is a mechanical driver, not a fundamental one — but it is enough to turn a weekly flow number positive.
Where Bitcoin Sits Technically
At $64,100, Bitcoin is in a recovery zone but has not reclaimed the $67,000–$68,000 resistance cluster that rejected price in mid-June. That level needs to be cleared convincingly before any medium-term recovery thesis holds. On the downside, the $60,000 zone acted as support in late June and is the level bulls need to keep intact. A sustained break below would reopen the $55,000 area that held during the 2025 consolidation.
The broader crypto Fear and Greed Index has been in Extreme Fear territory for most of the past month. Historically that condition precedes mean-reversion bounces — but it can persist for extended periods when macro conditions remain unfavorable, as they did through much of 2022.
What This Means for Thai Crypto Investors
Thai investors accessing Bitcoin through licensed platforms such as Bitkub, Upbit Thailand, or Gulf Binance TH are looking at an asset trading roughly 10–12% below the year-open level in dollar terms. However, the baht has also weakened against the dollar over the same period, which partially offsets the dollar-price decline when measured in baht. The math varies by entry date, but the baht depreciation of roughly 3% since January has cushioned some of the loss.
The $282M inflow week is a positive signal, but one week is not a trend. Thai investors should watch whether net inflows are sustained over the next two to three weeks. Sustained inflows with price holding above $63,000 would begin to build a case that the June low was a cycle bottom.
What to Watch Next
The Fed meeting on July 29 is the next macro catalyst. A hold, as widely expected, could push Bitcoin toward $65,000–$67,000 in a relief rally. The more important number will be weekly ETF flow data through August. If institutional buyers return with meaningful size, the $60,000 low increasingly looks like the cycle bottom. If flows reverse again after this week, the bounce was technical, not structural, and the second half of 2026 could retest June lows.
