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Brent crude settled at $94.86 per barrel on September 2 — up 13.24% over the past month and 40.33% higher than a year ago. The immediate trigger was a new round of US military strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of global oil supply passes. For Thailand, a country that imports around 90% of its petroleum needs, this is not an abstract geopolitical story.
Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters More Than Usual
Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz during periods of military tension, and markets have historically shrugged those threats off. This time is different. The latest US strikes represent a direct escalation, not a proxy skirmish, and shipping insurers have already raised war-risk premiums on tankers transiting the Gulf. Brent’s 13% monthly gain happened with the strait still open — a partial closure scenario is not priced in at $94.
The Energy Information Administration estimates that a two-week Hormuz disruption would remove 15–17 million barrels per day from global supply. Brent would likely spike above $120 in that scenario, which is why even a low-probability risk commands a price premium now.
The Direct Hit on Thailand’s Economy
Thailand’s Energy Regulatory Commission sets domestic fuel prices every two weeks. With Brent above $90, the government’s oil fund subsidy is being drawn down faster than it can be replenished. Transport costs are rising, and headline CPI — already at 2.8% — has upside risk.
The current account balance is the cleaner way to see the damage. Thailand ran a modest surplus in the first half of 2026, but oil at $95 flips that math. A $10 rise in Brent costs Thailand roughly $3–4 billion annually in additional import spending. That money leaves the country as dollars, which adds to baht selling pressure on top of whatever the Fed decides on September 16.
Which Thai Sectors Win and Which Lose
Oil producers and refiners are the obvious winners. PTT and its subsidiaries — PTTEP, IRPC, Thai Oil — have been among the best-performing names on the SET in August. PTTEP in particular benefits directly from higher upstream prices. Airlines (Thai Airways, Bangkok Airways) and transport-heavy businesses face the opposite: higher jet fuel and diesel costs that compress margins in Q3.
Petrochemicals are more nuanced. Higher crude raises feedstock costs, but if end-product prices also rise (which they often do with a lag), margins can hold. Watch Q3 earnings from PTT Global Chemical for the actual impact.
What This Means for Thai Investors
If you are not already holding energy stocks in your SET portfolio, the question is whether $94 Brent is the start of a move toward $110 or the peak of a geopolitical spike that fades once diplomatic channels open. The honest answer: nobody knows, but the asymmetry of risk favors staying underweight airlines and overweight upstream energy until the Hormuz situation clarifies.
For those watching the baht, track Brent alongside USD/THB. The two have moved in the same direction (baht weakening, oil rising) for six consecutive weeks. If oil pulls back, the baht gets partial relief even before the FOMC.
Gold Is Not Behaving Like a Safe Haven
Notably, gold has fallen to around $4,330 during the same period that oil has spiked — the opposite of the typical flight-to-safety correlation. The reason: higher oil pushes up inflation expectations, which pushes up bond yields, which makes gold (a zero-yield asset) less attractive. Thai gold fund holders should understand this dynamic: a Middle East escalation that raises oil is not automatically good for gold.
What to Watch
- Hormuz shipping reports: Any confirmed tanker incidents or insurance market closures would be the first sign of a real supply shock.
- OPEC+ response: Saudi Arabia has spare capacity. A decision to raise output ceiling would cap Brent below $100.
- PTT and PTTEP share prices: The SET’s energy index is the fastest real-time read on how the Thai market is pricing this risk.
- Thailand CPI (mid-September): A reading above 3% would put BoT in an uncomfortable position — inflation rising while growth slows.
