{"id":6617,"date":"2026-08-04T17:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-04T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brokerth.com\/?p=6617"},"modified":"2026-08-04T17:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-08-04T10:00:00","slug":"set-1623-q3-sector-rotation-august-2026-en","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/brokerth.com\/en\/set-1623-q3-sector-rotation-august-2026-en\/","title":{"rendered":"SET at 1,623: Which Sectors Lead Thailand&#8217;s Q3 2026 Rotation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The SET closed July 31 at 1,623.64, up 25.53 points on the day and 33.27% above where it stood 12 months ago. The 52-week range of 1,212.68 to 1,657.55 tells a clear story: the index has already had its big move. The question for Q3 2026 is not whether to own Thai equities but which sectors will outperform from here\u2014and which are due for a rest after running hard in H1.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_86 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/brokerth.com\/en\/set-1623-q3-sector-rotation-august-2026-en\/#Why_the_Broad_Rally_Has_Slowed\" >Why the Broad Rally Has Slowed<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/brokerth.com\/en\/set-1623-q3-sector-rotation-august-2026-en\/#Sectors_With_Momentum_Heading_Into_Q3\" >Sectors With Momentum Heading Into Q3<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/brokerth.com\/en\/set-1623-q3-sector-rotation-august-2026-en\/#Sectors_to_Approach_With_Caution_in_Q3\" >Sectors to Approach With Caution in Q3<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/brokerth.com\/en\/set-1623-q3-sector-rotation-august-2026-en\/#What_This_Means_for_Thai_Investors_Managing_a_SET_Portfolio\" >What This Means for Thai Investors Managing a SET Portfolio<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/brokerth.com\/en\/set-1623-q3-sector-rotation-august-2026-en\/#The_Foreign_Investor_Variable\" >The Foreign Investor Variable<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why_the_Broad_Rally_Has_Slowed\"><\/span>Why the Broad Rally Has Slowed<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The SET&#8217;s 52-week high is 1,657.55, and the current level of 1,623 is about 2% below that. Breaking to new highs requires a catalyst, and right now the most likely headwind is external: the Federal Reserve&#8217;s hawkish turn (three dissenters voted to raise rates on July 29) adds dollar-strength pressure that tends to trigger foreign outflows from emerging-market equities including the SET. Foreign investors account for a meaningful share of SET turnover, and when the dollar firms, they often reduce EM exposure.<\/p>\n<p>Domestically, Thai GDP growth for 2026 is expected to come in around 3.0\u20133.5%\u2014solid but not the kind of acceleration that justifies broad multiple expansion. This is a stock-picking environment more than a rising-tide one.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Sectors_With_Momentum_Heading_Into_Q3\"><\/span>Sectors With Momentum Heading Into Q3<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><strong>Energy:<\/strong> Thai energy companies benefit from elevated global oil prices driven by Middle East tensions. PTT and PTTEP have outperformed the broader index in 2026. The risk is a peace deal or supply surge that collapses the oil price\u2014but that risk has been overhyped for much of the past year.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tourism and hospitality:<\/strong> Thailand&#8217;s tourism sector has recovered strongly post-pandemic, with foreign arrivals continuing to grow in 2026. Central Group, Minor International, and hotel operators have seen earnings upgrades through H1. The question is whether the pace of arrivals growth can sustain H2 margins or whether it has already been priced in.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Banking:<\/strong> Thai banks are benefiting from the BOT&#8217;s hold at 1.00%\u2014net interest margins are stable, and non-performing loan ratios have improved from post-pandemic highs. KBank, SCB, and Krungsri have been consistent performers. The risk is a BOT rate cut if the economy weakens, which would compress margins again.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Sectors_to_Approach_With_Caution_in_Q3\"><\/span>Sectors to Approach With Caution in Q3<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><strong>Consumer staples:<\/strong> Thai consumer spending growth has moderated. Companies exposed to domestic discretionary spending face margin pressure from input costs that have not fully normalized. This is not a short thesis but more of a &#8220;wait for a better entry&#8221; situation.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Property developers:<\/strong> Thai property stocks had a strong H1 but face headwinds from elevated household debt levels and slower-than-expected Chinese buyer activity. The SET&#8217;s property index is near 12-month highs; risk\/reward here is less attractive than 6 months ago.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_This_Means_for_Thai_Investors_Managing_a_SET_Portfolio\"><\/span>What This Means for Thai Investors Managing a SET Portfolio<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The SET at 1,623 is not cheap on a historical P\/E basis relative to the 33% 12-month gain. A position that made sense at 1,400 needs to be re-evaluated at 1,623. The sectors that worked in H1\u2014energy, tourism, banking\u2014do not uniformly offer the same return profile in Q3.<\/p>\n<p>A practical Q3 approach: overweight energy and selective banking names with strong NPL trends; hold tourism but watch for any data showing H2 arrivals slowdown; reduce consumer discretionary exposure; avoid adding to property at current levels. If the SET tests 1,600 on a Fed-driven risk-off move, that is a better accumulation point than buying into the current 1,623 level.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_Foreign_Investor_Variable\"><\/span>The Foreign Investor Variable<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The July 31 close showed the SET up 1.60% on strong volume. Some of that was foreign buying. Watch whether that foreign buying continues in August or reverses on dollar strength. Foreign net buy\/sell data is published by the Stock Exchange of Thailand daily and is the cleanest real-time signal of whether institutional money is adding to or reducing Thai equity risk. Two consecutive weeks of foreign net selling would signal it is time to be more defensive in SET positioning.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The SET closed July at 1,623 and is up 33% over 12 months. With foreign selling risk rising from Fed hawks, here is which sectors to hold and which to trim in Q3 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_gspb_post_css":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[34],"tags":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-6617","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-investing"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>SET at 1,623: Thailand Q3 2026 Sector Rotation Guide<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The SET closed July at 1,623 and is up 33% over 12 months. 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