{"id":6333,"date":"2026-07-14T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-14T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brokerth.com\/?p=6333"},"modified":"2026-07-14T14:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-07-14T07:00:00","slug":"set-1615-asean-laggard-h2-outlook-july2026-en","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/brokerth.com\/en\/set-1615-asean-laggard-h2-outlook-july2026-en\/","title":{"rendered":"SET at 1,615 Still Lags ASEAN: Thailand&#8217;s H2 2026 Investment Case"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The SET closed at 1,615 on July 11, recovering from a 1,577 low hit on July 8 during the spike in Hormuz-related oil prices. The intraday range on July 11 was 1,612\u20131,621, suggesting the index has found some footing. But at 1,615, Thailand is still underperforming its ASEAN neighbours \u2014 Jakarta&#8217;s JCI and Vietnam&#8217;s VN-Index have both outpaced the SET year-to-date \u2014 and the reasons for that underperformance are not going away overnight.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_83 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/brokerth.com\/en\/set-1615-asean-laggard-h2-outlook-july2026-en\/#Why_Thailand_Keeps_Lagging\" >Why Thailand Keeps Lagging<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/brokerth.com\/en\/set-1615-asean-laggard-h2-outlook-july2026-en\/#What_the_Recovery_from_1577_Means\" >What the Recovery from 1,577 Means<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/brokerth.com\/en\/set-1615-asean-laggard-h2-outlook-july2026-en\/#Sectors_That_Could_Lead_in_H2\" >Sectors That Could Lead in H2<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/brokerth.com\/en\/set-1615-asean-laggard-h2-outlook-july2026-en\/#What_This_Means_for_Thai_Investors\" >What This Means for Thai Investors<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/brokerth.com\/en\/set-1615-asean-laggard-h2-outlook-july2026-en\/#The_Level_to_Watch\" >The Level to Watch<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why_Thailand_Keeps_Lagging\"><\/span>Why Thailand Keeps Lagging<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Three structural factors explain the SET&#8217;s persistent discount to regional peers. First, the Bank of Thailand&#8217;s 1.00% rate cap on returns from baht-denominated assets means foreign investors face a double headwind: low domestic yields and a weakening currency. The baht is down 4.9% against the dollar this year. Second, Thailand&#8217;s GDP growth of 2.3% forecast for 2026 \u2014 while respectable \u2014 trails Indonesia&#8217;s 5%+ and Vietnam&#8217;s near-6% pace. Investors chasing ASEAN growth have more obvious places to put capital. Third, the SET&#8217;s sectoral composition is heavier in energy and banks, which are facing different pressures: energy from OPEC+&#8217;s output increase pulling Brent from $76.56, banks from a rate environment that does not deliver the margin expansion seen in higher-rate markets.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_the_Recovery_from_1577_Means\"><\/span>What the Recovery from 1,577 Means<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The bounce from 1,577 to 1,615 in three sessions is real and worth noting. It happened on improving foreign inflow data \u2014 overseas investors have turned net buyers of Thai equities in July after several quarters of selling. That is the most constructive development for the SET in months. But a 38-point bounce from a July panic low does not make the structural underperformance story go away. Watch whether foreign inflows continue into the week of July 14, or whether the buying was tactical profit-taking on short positions.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Sectors_That_Could_Lead_in_H2\"><\/span>Sectors That Could Lead in H2<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>If the SET is going to narrow the gap with ASEAN peers in H2, it will likely come from two areas. Banking is the first: KBank, SCB, and Krungsri all report Q2 earnings in the coming weeks, and net interest margins have held up better than expected at 1.00% BoT rates. A modest earnings beat from even one major bank could spark broader buying. Technology and electronics is the second area \u2014 Thailand is benefiting from supply chain shifts tied to the US-China trade restructuring, and several Thai tech-exposed companies have quietly posted strong top-line numbers in H1.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_This_Means_for_Thai_Investors\"><\/span>What This Means for Thai Investors<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>For retail investors in SET-tracking ETFs or index funds, the current level of 1,615 is within striking distance of analyst consensus targets of 1,630\u20131,650 for end-of-July. That is a 1\u20132% move, not transformative but real. The risk to that call is the Fed&#8217;s July 29 meeting: a hawkish outcome would likely reverse the foreign inflow trend and send the SET back toward 1,577 or lower.<\/p>\n<p>For stock-pickers, the upcoming Q2 earnings season is the catalyst to watch. Companies in banking and tech-adjacent sectors with conservative H1 guidance are the most likely sources of positive surprises. Energy sector results will be more mixed given oil price volatility.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_Level_to_Watch\"><\/span>The Level to Watch<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>1,600 is the tactical line. The SET has failed to sustain closes above 1,600 several times this year. A clean weekly close above it, backed by foreign buying, would signal something is actually changing. Below 1,580, the recovery thesis needs reassessment. At 1,615 heading into the week of July 14, the market is in a better place than it was on July 8 \u2014 but it has not yet proven anything lasting.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The SET closed at 1,615 on July 11 \u2014 up from a 1,577 low on July 8. But Thailand continues to lag Indonesia and Vietnam. Here&#8217;s what&#8217;s holding the market back and which sectors could lead a Q3 recovery.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_gspb_post_css":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[34],"tags":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-6333","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-investing"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>SET 1,615 vs ASEAN 2026: Thailand H2 Investment Outlook<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The SET closed at 1,615 on July 11 \u2014 up from a 1,577 low on July 8. But Thailand continues to lag Indonesia and Vietnam. 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