{"id":6273,"date":"2026-07-11T12:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-11T05:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brokerth.com\/?p=6273"},"modified":"2026-07-11T12:30:00","modified_gmt":"2026-07-11T05:30:00","slug":"set-1590-q3-target-1630-july-2026-en","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/brokerth.com\/en\/set-1590-q3-target-1630-july-2026-en\/","title":{"rendered":"Thailand&#8217;s SET Index at 1,590: Analysts Target 1,630 Points in July 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Thailand&#8217;s SET index opened at 1,590.12 on July 9, 2026, reaching a high of 1,599.34 before settling in a 1,586\u20131,599 intraday range. The index has held gains across two consecutive sessions. The analyst consensus is calling for a 1,620\u20131,630 target range through the end of July \u2014 a 2\u20132.5% move from current levels. That is achievable, but several conditions need to hold simultaneously.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_83 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/brokerth.com\/en\/set-1590-q3-target-1630-july-2026-en\/#What_Has_Been_Driving_the_SET_Higher\" >What Has Been Driving the SET Higher<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/brokerth.com\/en\/set-1590-q3-target-1630-july-2026-en\/#Q2_Earnings_The_Test_That_Starts_Mid-July\" >Q2 Earnings: The Test That Starts Mid-July<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/brokerth.com\/en\/set-1590-q3-target-1630-july-2026-en\/#The_Risks_That_Could_Stall_the_Rally\" >The Risks That Could Stall the Rally<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/brokerth.com\/en\/set-1590-q3-target-1630-july-2026-en\/#What_This_Means_for_Thai_Investors\" >What This Means for Thai Investors<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/brokerth.com\/en\/set-1590-q3-target-1630-july-2026-en\/#What_to_Watch_Through_Mid-July\" >What to Watch Through Mid-July<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_Has_Been_Driving_the_SET_Higher\"><\/span>What Has Been Driving the SET Higher<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Foreign inflows have been the most consistent support for the SET in recent weeks. International investors have returned to Thai equities after several quarters of net selling, drawn partly by relative valuations \u2014 the SET has underperformed regional peers like Indonesia&#8217;s Jakarta Composite and the Philippine PSEi for much of 2025 and early 2026, making Thai stocks look cheap on a price-to-book basis.<\/p>\n<p>Banking stocks have been a focal point. KBank (Kasikornbank), SCB, and Krungsri have reported stable or improving net interest margins despite the BOT holding rates at 1.00% \u2014 which surprised some analysts who expected margin compression. Banks now account for a meaningful share of the bullish flow pushing the index toward 1,600.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Q2_Earnings_The_Test_That_Starts_Mid-July\"><\/span>Q2 Earnings: The Test That Starts Mid-July<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The SET&#8217;s ability to sustain a push toward 1,630 will depend heavily on Q2 2026 corporate earnings, which begin flowing from mid-July onward. The expectations bar is not high \u2014 most Thai companies guided conservatively after Q1 \u2014 meaning even modest beats could provide upside fuel.<\/p>\n<p>Energy stocks are worth watching. OPEC+ announced a production increase of 188,000 barrels per day from August, which has pulled Brent crude to $71.74 as of July 9. Thai energy companies with upstream exposure may face earnings pressure, while downstream refining margins could hold up better as input costs ease.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_Risks_That_Could_Stall_the_Rally\"><\/span>The Risks That Could Stall the Rally<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Three factors could keep the SET below 1,630. First, the Fed&#8217;s July 29 meeting: markets price an 84% chance of no change, but a hawkish surprise would strengthen the dollar and typically push foreign money out of Asian equities \u2014 including Thailand. Second, US inflation: the PCE reading at 3.6% suggests the Fed&#8217;s tightening cycle may not be quite over, which dampens global risk appetite. Third, domestic political noise \u2014 any unexpected policy disruption from the coalition government could rattle foreign investors who have only just returned.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_This_Means_for_Thai_Investors\"><\/span>What This Means for Thai Investors<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Thai retail investors who have been cautious since the SET failed to break 1,640 in Q1 are looking at the most constructive backdrop of the year so far. That is not a guarantee the move to 1,630 happens \u2014 the Fed risk is real \u2014 but the probability-weighted picture is better than it was in April or May.<\/p>\n<p>For those already long Thai equities, 1,600 is the first technical milestone. A close above it on good volume reinforces the bullish case and likely attracts momentum buyers. For new entrants, the 1,586\u20131,590 zone has acted as short-term support and offers a reasonable risk\/reward entry with a stop below 1,580.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_to_Watch_Through_Mid-July\"><\/span>What to Watch Through Mid-July<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Mark three dates: Q2 earnings releases from major SET constituents starting around July 14\u201315. The BOT&#8217;s monthly economic assessment, typically released in the second week of July, providing updated GDP and inflation data. And mid-month foreign fund flow data \u2014 the key indicator of whether the current inflow trend is holding.<\/p>\n<p>At 1,590 the SET is not cheap, but it is not stretched either. The analyst target of 1,630 by end-July implies modest but real upside if macro headwinds stay manageable. Play it carefully \u2014 the Fed meeting on July 29 is less than three weeks away.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Thailand&#8217;s SET opened at 1,590.12 on July 9, holding gains from two prior sessions. Analysts are calling for 1,620\u20131,630 through July \u2014 but the path depends on Q2 earnings, foreign inflows, and the Fed&#8217;s July 29 meeting.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_gspb_post_css":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[34],"tags":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-6273","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-investing"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>SET Index 1,590: Analysts Target 1,630 in July 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Thailand&#039;s SET opened at 1,590.12 on July 9, holding gains from two prior sessions. 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