{"id":6177,"date":"2026-07-07T17:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-07T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brokerth.com\/?p=6177"},"modified":"2026-07-07T17:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-07-07T10:00:00","slug":"set-1611-foreign-inflows-july-2026-en","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/brokerth.com\/en\/set-1611-foreign-inflows-july-2026-en\/","title":{"rendered":"SET Index at 1,611 in July 2026: Foreign Funds Hit a 3-Year High Zone"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Thailand&#8217;s SET Index closed at <strong>1,611.28<\/strong> on July 3, up 1.11% on the day, and analysts are projecting it trades in the <strong>1,620\u20131,650 range<\/strong> through July. That range represents a level the index has not sustained since 2023, making this one of the more interesting SET setups in three years. The driver is not domestic earnings growth \u2014 it is foreign fund inflows, specifically the rotation of international capital into Thai large-cap equities as softer US employment data eased bond yield pressure globally.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_83 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/brokerth.com\/en\/set-1611-foreign-inflows-july-2026-en\/#What_is_Driving_the_Rally\" >What is Driving the Rally<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/brokerth.com\/en\/set-1611-foreign-inflows-july-2026-en\/#Which_Sectors_Are_Leading\" >Which Sectors Are Leading<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/brokerth.com\/en\/set-1611-foreign-inflows-july-2026-en\/#What_This_Means_for_Thai_Investors\" >What This Means for Thai Investors<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/brokerth.com\/en\/set-1611-foreign-inflows-july-2026-en\/#Risks_to_the_Bullish_Scenario\" >Risks to the Bullish Scenario<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_is_Driving_the_Rally\"><\/span>What is Driving the Rally<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Two forces are working together. First, softer US nonfarm payrolls data released July 3 sent US Treasury yields lower, which reduces the relative attractiveness of holding US bonds versus emerging-market equities. When the US 10-year yield drops, capital rotates \u2014 and Thailand has benefited from its combination of political stability, cheap valuations, and an energy sector that is less exposed to Middle East disruption than peers like Malaysia.<\/p>\n<p>Second, analysts note that Thai political stability has genuinely improved in 2026. The government coalition has held without the turmoil seen in 2022\u20132024, and there is a clearer multi-year infrastructure spending program. Foreign institutional funds, particularly from Japan and Singapore, have been net buyers of Thai large-cap banks (KBank, SCB) and energy stocks (PTT, PTTEP) since late Q1 2026.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Which_Sectors_Are_Leading\"><\/span>Which Sectors Are Leading<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Banking has been the primary driver. <strong>KBank<\/strong> and <strong>SCB<\/strong> have outperformed the index in 2026 as interest margin pressure eased (the BoT rate has been stable at 1% rather than being cut further) and non-performing loan ratios have stabilized. Energy \u2014 PTT and PTTEP \u2014 has performed well on oil prices recovering from their mid-year dip. Tourism-linked stocks (AOT, CENTEL) have lagged but are starting to recover as Q3 is peak high-season for international arrivals.<\/p>\n<p>The underperformer has been tech and electronics-linked manufacturers, which face headwinds from softer global demand and baht weakness inflating their dollar-denominated input costs.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_This_Means_for_Thai_Investors\"><\/span>What This Means for Thai Investors<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>At 1,611, the SET is trading at approximately <strong>14\u201315x forward earnings<\/strong>, which is not cheap by emerging-market standards but not expensive given the risk-free rate environment in Thailand (BoT at 1%, Thai 10-year yields near 2.8%). The valuation argument for Thai equities over Thai fixed deposits is clearer now than it was a year ago.<\/p>\n<p>For investors considering the SET Index through ETF products (TDEX, TISCO ETF), the practical consideration is currency: the baht&#8217;s current weakness against the dollar does not directly affect SET returns in baht terms, but foreign fund outflows triggered by a baht deterioration would be a headwind. Watch USD\/THB \u2014 if it breaks above 33.50, foreign funds may slow their pace of buying.<\/p>\n<p>CGS International&#8217;s analyst Gun Hathaisattha set the July range at 1,620\u20131,650. Globlex Securities&#8217; managing director Suwat Sinsadok cited &#8220;better economic prospects for H2 2026&#8221; for a range of 1,620\u20131,630. Both projections implicitly assume the Fed holds at its July 29 meeting \u2014 a hike would likely revise those targets down 30\u201350 points.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Risks_to_the_Bullish_Scenario\"><\/span>Risks to the Bullish Scenario<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Fed hike on July 29<\/strong> \u2014 would trigger a risk-off episode and reverse some foreign fund inflows<\/li>\n<li><strong>USD\/THB above 33.50<\/strong> \u2014 signals carry trade pressure that could eventually push foreign funds to reduce EM exposure<\/li>\n<li><strong>China slowdown<\/strong> \u2014 Thai exports to China remain significant; any demand softening from Chinese consumers hits Thai industrial and tourism sectors<\/li>\n<li><strong>Domestic consumption data<\/strong> \u2014 if Q2 GDP disappoints when released in August, the &#8220;growth story&#8221; narrative weakens<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The SET at 1,611 is not a screaming buy, but it is the best risk-reward level Thai equities have offered in three years. The bull case depends on the Fed behaving next week and through July.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The SET closed at 1,611.28 on July 3, with analysts projecting 1,620\u20131,650 for July. Foreign funds are flowing into KBank, SCB, and PTT. What the rally means for Thai equity investors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_gspb_post_css":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[34],"tags":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-6177","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-investing"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>SET Index 1,611 July 2026: Foreign Inflows Near 3-Year High<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The SET closed at 1,611.28 on July 3, with analysts projecting 1,620\u20131,650 for July. Foreign funds are flowing into KBank, SCB, and PTT. 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