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Thailand’s listed companies had a strong first half of 2026. Of the 800 companies that submitted results, 792 reported their Q2 numbers — and 592 of them were profitable, a 74% profitability rate. Net profit growth across the board came in at 22% year-on-year, and the SET index closed H1 at 1,591.24 — up 26.3% from end-2025.
That’s a legitimately impressive result. The question for September is whether it continues — or whether the index, now hovering around 1,588 with resistance at 1,611-1,620, needs a breather before the next leg up.
Which Sectors Drove the Growth
Petrochemicals led on margin expansion. Global feedstock costs eased through Q2 while product prices held firmer, allowing Thai petrochemical producers to capture wider spreads than they’d seen in 2024. This is cyclical — it tends to reverse when feedstock costs rise — but Q2 was a good quarter for the sector.
Technology and electronics benefited from continued global demand for semiconductors and electronic components, alongside a digital expansion cycle that BOI-accelerated investment helped to anchor domestically. Several tech-adjacent SET names that had been weighed down by cautious 2025 capex finally delivered on forward guidance.
Services — particularly tourism-adjacent names — continued a recovery that started in 2024. International arrivals to Thailand have recovered to above 2019 levels in certain months, supporting hotel, airline, and food service revenues.
Commercial banks underperformed relative to the broader index. Lower policy rates — BOT held at 1.0% for the third time — compressed net interest margins, though loan growth remained steady. Banks supported the index rather than driving it.
The EPS Target Revision Matters
Analysts revised the 2026 SET EPS target upward to 110.4 THB per share (+8.4% revision) following Q2 results. The 2027 target was bumped to 115.1 THB per share. These are described as potential all-time highs for SET EPS. That upward revision is meaningful because it tells you the earnings beats were broad enough to change forward estimates, not just isolated to one sector or a handful of companies.
At an index level of 1,588 and EPS of 110.4, the SET trades at a P/E of around 14.4x for 2026. Relative to regional peers — MSCI Southeast Asia trades at around 13-15x — that’s in line. Not cheap, not expensive. The earnings growth story, if it extends into H2, would bring the P/E down toward 13.5x, which is where value investors tend to get more interested.
The BOI Tailwind
BOI-accelerated investment approvals have been a quiet driver of SET performance that tends to get less coverage than it deserves. Foreign direct investment commitments that flow through BOI take 12-24 months to show up in corporate revenues, but the pipeline built in 2024-2025 is beginning to translate into actual capex and production capacity expansions visible in Q2 results. Technology and industrials are the primary beneficiaries.
What September Holds
The SET’s resistance cluster at 1,611-1,620 has held multiple times. A break above would open the way toward 1,650 and potentially challenge the year’s highs. The bank sector is the swing factor: if BOT surprises with a rate hold comment that gives banks confidence on NIMs, banks could shift from a drag to a driver.
The external risk is the Fed. A September 15-16 hike would strengthen the dollar and likely prompt foreign selling from SET at the margin — international investors have been net buyers through August, and a rising dollar makes emerging market positions less attractive in USD terms.
What This Means for Thai Investors
For investors who missed the 26.3% H1 rally: the second half is usually more volatile than the first, and Q3 in an earnings-upgrade cycle doesn’t always deliver the same return as Q2. The prudent approach is selective positioning rather than broad SET exposure at current levels.
Petrochemicals are cyclical and potentially near their margin peak for this cycle. Technology and BOI-related industrials have more runway if the investment pipeline delivers. Services names depend heavily on tourism data through September and October, which will be important to watch as we approach Q3 earnings season.
The 74% profitability rate and 22% earnings growth are not something to wave away. Thai corporate fundamentals are in genuinely good shape going into September. But a 26% H1 gain means some of that good news is already priced.
The Bottom Line
The EPS revision to 110.4 THB for 2026 is the most important number from Q2 earnings season. It means analysts are raising their targets after results, not cutting them — which is the direction you want. September positioning should lean toward sectors with earnings momentum still in front of them: tech, industrials, select services. Avoid buying cyclical recovery plays that have already had their earnings upgrade moment.
