BrokerTH
XRP is trading at $1.04 as of August 9, 2026 — down about 5.5% over the previous seven days, making it one of the weakest performers among the major cryptocurrencies in that window. Two things happened in early August that together explain the drop: Ripple released 1 billion XRP tokens from its scheduled monthly escrow on August 1, and weekly inflows into XRP-focused exchange-traded funds collapsed from $14.9 million the prior week to just $1 million.
The Escrow Mechanism and Why It Creates Pressure
When Ripple launched XRP, the company locked 55 billion tokens into cryptographically secured escrow contracts, releasing up to 1 billion per month on a fixed schedule. The stated purpose was to prove to the market that Ripple could not flood supply arbitrarily. In practice, the monthly unlock is a known supply event that sophisticated traders have long since priced in. What changes sentiment is what Ripple does with the unlocked tokens: some go back into escrow, some fund operations and partnerships, and a small fraction ends up in open market circulation.
August’s unlock came at an awkward moment when institutional buying had already softened. The combination of new potential supply and reduced demand is a straightforward recipe for price weakness.
ETF Inflows: From $14.9M to $1M in One Week
XRP ETFs launched earlier in 2026 as part of the broader crypto ETF expansion in the US market. At their peak, these products were drawing meaningful institutional interest. The drop from $14.9 million to $1 million in weekly net inflows is dramatic — a roughly 93% decline — and suggests that institutional buyers who had been accumulating have either paused or rotated into other crypto assets, likely Bitcoin or Ethereum, where US ETF flows have been more consistent.
This matters because ETF inflows had been one of the cleaner signals of institutional conviction in XRP’s rally. Their absence does not mean XRP is broken, but it removes a buyer type that had been supporting price action above $1.00.
How Far XRP Has Fallen From Its Cycle High
At its peak in the current market cycle, XRP hit $3.66. At $1.04, it is down 72% from that high. For comparison, Bitcoin during the same period has been far more resilient, trading in the $65,000–$70,000 range. The XRP narrative that drove the $3.66 move — legal clarity after Ripple’s multi-year SEC case, institutional adoption momentum, SWIFT alternative positioning — has not collapsed, but momentum has clearly faded.
Ripple’s President Monica Long said on August 4 that she was seeing a “light switch flip” in institutional interest in 24/7 trading infrastructure, citing Ripple’s cross-border payment rails. That commentary is positive for the medium-term thesis but does not change near-term supply and demand dynamics.
What This Means for Thai Crypto Traders
Thailand’s licensed exchanges — Bitkub, Satang, and Gulf Binance — list XRP and typically show trading volumes that track global sentiment closely. Thai retail traders who bought XRP at higher levels are sitting on significant losses relative to the $3.66 peak. The question now is whether $1.00–$1.05 represents a floor or a staging area for further decline.
The $1.00 level is psychologically significant, and the market has so far held above it. But with ETF inflows at multi-month lows and Ripple’s monthly escrow unlock creating overhead supply risk each month, buyers need a fresh catalyst to push XRP meaningfully higher. The next monthly escrow unlock arrives September 1.
For Thai investors considering a position at current levels: the risk/reward is better than at $3.00, but the near-term headwinds are real. Any recovery in broader crypto sentiment, driven by Bitcoin’s direction and US inflation data this week, would likely pull XRP higher given its historical beta to BTC moves.
Watch Points
US CPI on August 12 will move the broader crypto market. A soft reading is generally risk-positive and would likely lift XRP alongside Bitcoin. The next Ripple escrow release date is September 1. And any regulatory news from Thailand’s ก.ล.ต. around XRP’s status as a digital asset in the domestic framework could move local exchange volumes independently of global price action.
