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The SET index closed June at 1,591 points on June 30 — up 0.85% on the day — and opened July trading between 1,583 and 1,596. Two of Thailand’s major securities houses have already published their July targets: Globlex Securities puts the range at 1,620–1,630, while CGS International goes slightly higher at 1,620–1,650. Those targets imply 2%–4% upside from current levels, which is achievable but not guaranteed. The case for it rests on a few specific catalysts, and it is worth knowing what they are before positioning.
Why Analysts Are Bullish for July
The main arguments are three. First, the government’s “Thais Help Thais” (คนไทยช่วยคนไทย) co-payment consumption scheme is expected to provide a visible GDP boost in the third quarter. When you pump several hundred billion baht into consumer spending over a short window, it shows up in retail sales, food and beverage revenues, and discretionary consumption — all of which support sectors that are heavily represented in the SET.
Second, Q2 2026 bank earnings releases are coming in the second half of July. Aggregate loan growth has been positive, and banking stocks — which have significant weight in the SET — tend to react well when earnings beat a modest bar. KBank, SCB, and Krungsri are the names most likely to move the index.
Third, foreign fund flows have shifted toward Defensive and Value themes in Thailand, which is a more stable inflow base than speculative momentum money. Infrastructure, utilities, and select consumer staples are seeing institutional allocation increases.
What Could Keep the SET Below 1,620
The SET has been below 1,600 for most of June. Getting to 1,620 requires foreign buying or at least a cessation of foreign selling, which has been the dominant flow pattern. The baht weakness — USD/THB at 33.38, the weakest since May 2025 — reduces the attractiveness of Thai equities to foreign investors who price returns in dollars. A dollar-denominated investor buying the SET today is buying into both equity risk and currency risk.
The global backdrop is also not clean. US equity volatility, ongoing uncertainty about the Fed’s July decision, and oil price volatility (energy stocks are a meaningful SET component) all create noise that can keep international buyers cautious.
Sector Picks Worth Watching in H2 2026
If the broader market does reach 1,620–1,650, certain sectors are positioned to outperform:
- Banks — Q2 earnings catalyst, stable loan growth, potential beneficiary of any BOT rate normalization (longer-term)
- Retail and consumer — direct beneficiary of the co-payment stimulus; look at Central Retail and BJC
- Healthcare — structural growth from medical tourism recovery and aging demographics; a reliable defensive play
- Energy — PTT and PTTEP benefit from elevated oil prices linked to Middle East risk; volatile but high-return in the right environment
- Industrial estates — AI and technology supply chain relocation from China to Thailand has been a multi-year driver; WHA Group and Amata are the key names
What This Means for Thai Investors
The SET at 1,588 is not cheap by Thai market standards, but it is not expensive either. The 12-month forward P/E is around 14x — in line with ASEAN peers and below the 15x–17x range seen during the 2021–2022 bull run. Dividend yields from SET blue chips average around 3.5%–4%, which is competitive with fixed deposits given the BOT rate at 1%.
For long-term investors, July’s potential 2%–4% move toward 1,620–1,650 matters less than the H2 2026 earnings trajectory. If the co-payment stimulus and Q2 bank earnings both deliver, the SET has a credible path toward 1,700+ before year-end. If the global macro environment deteriorates — particularly around the Fed meeting — the 1,550–1,570 support zone comes back into play.
The Key Dates for July
- Mid-July — Bank Q2 earnings releases; KBank and SCB results will set the tone for the sector
- Late July — Government confirmation of Q3 stimulus details; market will want specifics on the co-payment scheme size
- July 29 — Fed decision; global risk-on/risk-off will determine whether foreign buying returns to the SET
The 1,620 target is the level to watch. A weekly close above it by end-July would confirm the bullish case and open the conversation about the 1,700 target for Q3. Staying below 1,600 through month-end suggests the macro headwinds are too heavy for domestic catalysts to overcome alone.
