BrokerTH
The signed US-Iran peace deal and the hawkish Fed landed in the same week, and together they created the clearest divergence Thai investors have seen all year: equities up on peace, crypto down on the Fed. Oil fell to around $80 after the 14-point deal reopened the Strait of Hormuz, lifting Thai stocks, while Bitcoin sank near $63,900 on the Fed’s hawkish dot plot. Holding both assets right now means holding two opposite stories at once.
The week that split the market
Two huge events, pulling different assets in different directions:
- The peace deal (bullish for equities): the US and Iran signed a 14-point MOU on June 15 reopening Hormuz. Oil dropped ~4.5% to $80, easing the inflation and cost pressures that had weighed on Thai companies
- The hawkish Fed (bearish for crypto): the June 17 dot plot raised the 2026 rate path to 3.8% with hikes on the table, sinking Bitcoin and triggering ETF outflows
Equities trade the peace; crypto trades the Fed. Same week, opposite outcomes.
Why Thai equities are the winner here
Thailand imports most of its oil, so a drop to $80 is a direct tailwind — lower input costs, easing inflation, a better current account, a firmer baht. The peace deal removes the war premium that pressured the SET for months. Thai stocks have real earnings and now a macro tailwind. That’s a genuinely constructive setup for the SET.
Why crypto is the loser here
Crypto needed cheaper money, and the Fed just said no — possibly a hike, inflation projected at 3.6%, no forward guidance. Lower oil helps inflation eventually, but the Fed won’t act on “eventually.” So the same falling oil that lifts Thai equities does nothing for crypto, because crypto’s problem is the rate path, not the oil price.
What a Thai investor should actually do
The divergence is a gift for the diversified and a trap for the concentrated:
- Lean into Thai equities that benefit from cheaper oil — transport, consumer, petrochemicals — while trimming oil producers that lose from falling crude
- Keep crypto small and patient — it’s cheap but the catalyst is gone until US inflation softens. Don’t add aggressively into a hawkish Fed
- Hold the balance — this week is the clearest proof that crypto and equities don’t move together. A portfolio with both, sized sensibly, captures the equity upside without the portfolio living or dying on crypto
What to watch
- Whether oil stays near $80 as Hormuz traffic normalizes (supports the equity story)
- US inflation prints (the only thing that turns the crypto story)
- Foreign flows into the SET — confirmation the peace rally has legs
The takeaway
This week handed Thai investors a textbook divergence: peace lifted equities, the Fed sank crypto. The right response isn’t to pick a winner — it’s to tilt toward the oil-sensitive Thai equities that are clearly benefiting, keep crypto small and patient until the Fed turns, and let diversification do its job. The investors who get hurt are the ones who treated crypto and stocks as the same trade.
