BrokerTH
The SET closed at 1,539.12 on May 14, up 1.44% on the session and roughly 27% above the same week last year. SET 50 dipped to 994 on May 15, giving back some of the rally. The setup right now is unusual: solid 1Q26 corporate earnings, foreign fund inflows from the US-China summit news, but a Bank of Thailand warning that Middle East fallout could drag GDP growth to 1.5%. For Thai investors, the question isn’t bullish or bearish — it’s which sectors are positioned right.
Where 1Q26 earnings actually surprised
Petrochemical names led the upside surprise this quarter. SCC, PTTGC, and IVL all reported margin expansion as feedstock costs eased and downstream demand from China recovered post-summit. Kingsford Securities flagged these three as their top accumulation picks, alongside industrial estate plays AMATA and WHA, infrastructure names CK and STECON, and renewable plays GUNKUL and TSE.
The earnings beat wasn’t uniform. Bank and consumer staples came in mixed — credit quality is fine but loan growth stays muted with BOT at 1% and corporate demand soft.
Why petrochemical now
The thesis here has three legs:
- Margin recovery from a weak 2024-25 trough. Spread between naphtha and downstream products widened roughly 8-12% YoY
- China demand. The Nvidia chip export relaxation and broader US-China detente lifts Chinese industrial sentiment, which flows back into petchem feedstock demand
- Valuation. SCC trades at roughly 14x forward P/E, PTTGC closer to 11x — both below their 5-year averages
The risk is the same one that powered the rally — oil price. If Middle East tensions push Brent above USD 95-100 sustained, feedstock costs rise faster than downstream prices can pass through, compressing margins again. The trade works in a USD 80-90 Brent range, gets harder above.
Renewables — the policy tailwind nobody’s talking about
GUNKUL and TSE are leveraged to Thailand’s PDP 2024 power development plan revision, which raised the renewable target share for 2030. Both are showing 1Q26 capacity adds on schedule. GUNKUL trades around 12x forward earnings; TSE closer to 15x. The catalysts are clear — new PPA awards over the next two quarters and any tariff revision on rooftop solar feed-in.
The downside: rate-sensitive names suffer if BOT pivots back to cutting and bond yields fall further. Counterintuitively, that’s good for renewables given their capital intensity. So this position is actually a partial dovish-BOT hedge.
Industrial estates — China relocation play
AMATA and WHA have been bid on the assumption that China + 1 supply chain relocation continues to favor Thailand for auto, electronics, and EV component manufacturing. 1Q26 leasing data supports this — both names showed roughly 15-20% YoY uptick in land sales. The tactical issue is execution: leasing now feeds revenue 12-18 months out, so price-multiple compression can happen even with strong demand.
What a Thai investor portfolio could look like right now
For a baht-denominated portfolio with a 6-12 month horizon, a reasonable structure given the news flow:
- 40% SET 50 broad exposure via ETF (TDEX or similar) — cheap, liquid base
- 20-25% petrochemical (SCC, PTTGC, IVL split) — earnings catalyst
- 15% renewables (GUNKUL, TSE) — policy tailwind + rate hedge
- 10% industrial estate (WHA primarily) — relocation play with measured upside
- 10-15% cash, ready to add on a Middle-East-driven pullback to 1,470-1,490 zone
Bottom line
1,539 isn’t a “back up the truck” level, but it’s a reasonable mid-range entry for a thesis-driven portfolio. The earnings story is real, the foreign-flow tailwind is there, and the macro risk is identifiable — Middle East and oil. Watch Brent and the next MPC release; those are the two prints that will move the index 3-5% either way.
